Tennis is a great sport to watch and follow, but it can be even more fun to place bets on the game. Whether it is on the Money Line bet or placing Over/Under totals on the number of aces, there are a variety of betting options available for tennis fans.
The main challenge in tenis prediction is estimating the likelihood of a player winning a match based on their current rankings and previous performance. Various model-based approaches have been tested but the results are inconsistent, with no clear indication of achievable betting returns for a bettor. This article explores some of the latest research in this area and suggests some directions for future work.
A common approach is to use a probability model to estimate the probabilities of a player winning each individual set, game and point in a match. The model is calibrated using a player’s past performances and the surface on which the match will be played. The model is then used to predict the outcome of each individual match. McHale and Morton (2011) report that paired comparison models perform better than logistic regression-based models in terms of achievable betting returns.
Another way to make a tenis prediction is by looking at the head-to-head records between two players on the same surface. For example, a player might be a strong favorite to win on hard courts but have struggled on clay courts. This might give reason to believe that they will not win a Grand Slam match against a rival who has been very successful on the same surface.
Moreover, a player’s physical fitness is an important factor to consider when making a tenis prediction. A sudden injury may disrupt a player’s preparation and significantly reduce their chances of success in the final. It is especially critical to keep this in mind when betting on Grand Slam matches because a long tournament requires high levels of endurance.
Finally, a tenis prediction can also be made by analyzing the current odds of each selection. These are proposed by online bookmakers and are a good indicator of the reliability of a bet. For instance, the world number one Novak Djokovic is a 1.20 (1/5) favourite to beat the world number two Rafa Nadal on hard courts. However, if you check their previous head-to-heads on this surface, Djokovic has won 16 of the 20 matches while Nadal has only won four.
In addition to the traditional markets such as match winner and tournament outrights, many sportsbooks offer a range of tenis betting markets including over/under totals on total games and total sets. These bets are a fun way to bet on tennis matches and they can also provide some additional profit opportunities in the event of a certain set or game outcome. To make these bets simply click on the ‘Over/Under’ betting market and select the option that you want to place a bet on. If the selected total is higher than the actual total then you will win the bet. tenis prediction
